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標題: s & P透出的不良訊息!! [打印本頁]

作者: limfly 時間: 2012-8-8 04:23 PM 標題: s & P透出的不良訊息!!

152 TOP 10 BLUE CHIP INDEX SHOWS UNHEALTHY MARKET August 04, 2012 | ChartWatchers | written by Carl Swenlin
Decision Point publishes a daily Tracker report of our 152 Blue Chip list. This list is composed of the stocks in the S&P 100 Index, the Dow 65, and some large-cap Nasdaq stocks. We also track the Top 10 stocks in ths list, ranked by relative strength measured by Decision Point's proprietary PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator).
I have observed this list over a long period of time, and my impression has been that the top stocks do exceptionally well during a bull market, and extremely poorly in a bear market; however, I wanted to develop a more objective way to measuring the performance of these top stocks.
To do this I constructed a "Blue Chip Top 10 Index". This is done by calculating the daily change of the Index as being the daily average percent change of the securities in the Blue Chip Top 10 list. Stocks are tracked from the day after they enter the Top 10 list through the day they drop off the list.
The Top 10 Index is equally weighted, so theoretically one could only replicate the performance of the list with real money by reallocating an equal amount to each stock each day (and somehow avoid transaction fees in the process). More to the point, the Top 10 list are a good place to look for securities that will out-perform the market, but it will be impossible for you to duplicate the Index. You could also lose a ton of money if you are long these top ranked securities during an extended market decline.
The primary purpose of the 152 Top 10 Index (BC Top 10) is to how see well these top ranked large-cap stocks are doing in relation to the broader market. Specifically, in a bull market or extended rally we expect the Index to out-perform the broad market. This is because, when stocks reach the top of the list, they tend to stay on top due to persistent upward momentum. This is a healthy condition. In an unhealthy market, stocks tend to rotate through the Top 10 rather quickly, and the performance of the index poor in relation to the broad market.
Comparing three-year charts of the SPX and BC Top 10 Indexes we can see that the Top 10 have been underperforming for the entire time. Since the June low the BC Top 10 has advance only 5.9% versus 9.5% for the SPX. And while the SPX has been trending up for the period shown, the BC Top 10 has been trending down since the February 2011 top.

Conclusion: In spite of upward movement of the SPX, the Blue Chip Top 10 Index tells us that the leadership of the market has been rotating too rapidly, which suggests confusion and weakness. By the time a stock reaches the Top 10, it loses momentum and drops right back out again. This is evidence that for a long time the internal condition of the market has been turbulent and confusing, in spite of generally rising market prices.

雖然美股上漲, 但是大股沒跟上...有點問題!~~

作者: limfly 時間: 2012-8-8 04:45 PM

ENJOY S&P 500 RALLY WHILE IT LASTS August 04, 2012 | ChartWatchers | written by Richard Rhodes
For now, the S&P 500 is rallying in a manner that is abrupt to say the least - several days higher, then several days lower, and then repeat. This, coupled with the European fiasco has caused investor/trader sentiment to become rather archly bearish; and therefore the short-term trend appears to be higher towards the all-time highs around the 1500 zone. Certainly the 160-week moving average defines the trend higher as it is rising; but also the 80-week exponential moving average was recent tested and held. Resistance stands at upper wedge resistance and the previous highs at 1500 - and odds are that it shall be tested sometime this fall.

However, make no mistake about it - the highs shall prove their merit, with the pattern very similar to that of the 1970's. So, enjoy the rally while it lasts - there will be a short entry point sooner rather than later.
Good luck and good trading,
Richard

哪會是短暫的 ONE NIGHt IN BEIJING (北京一夜) ?

作者: limfly 時間: 2012-8-8 04:46 PM

AGGRESSIVE INDICES AND SECTORS FLASHING A WARNING? August 04, 2012 | ChartWatchers | written by Tom Bowley
Any time the S&P 500 moves to fresh new highs, I try to determine the likelihood that the move is a sustainable one. Traders need to be in the right mindset to carry prices further. They need to be aggressive in terms of where they place their trading dollars. If sector leadership comes from financials, technology, industrials and consumer discretionary, it's a sign that it's a risk-on environment, which generally is quite bullish. But as we saw in May 2011, it's never a good sign to break out with defensive areas of the market leading the way. In my opinion, market participants are not "committed" if they're only willing to invest in defensive groups.

The Russell 2000 is one of the more aggressive areas of equities to invest in. Take a look at how this group is lagging on an absolute and relative basis:

From a longer-term perspective, you can see the S&P 500 broke out in the first quarter of 2012 above the 2011 highs, but note the Russell 2000 never made that same breakout. Therefore, the bottom chart shows the relative performance of the Russell 2000 to be abysmal. On a shorter-term basis, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are going in nearly opposite directions with the S&P 500 climbing and the Russell 2000 weakening. What gives?

The other problem is that defensive groups are leading this rally to the upside on the S&P 500. The last time we saw this scenario in April/May 2011, it preceded a significant drop in our major indices. Check out this chart:

It's very unusual to see the relative strength of defensive sectors moving in the same direction as the S&P 500. If you study a chart like this over time, you'll see there is almost always a direct NEGATIVE correlation between the two. When they're both rising, we MUST take note. Will this again mark a top? It's hard to say. I remain bullish and believe we'll see another leg higher into the end of 2012 or early 2013, but short-term it's dicey with this type of relative leadership, especially since we're in the historically weak August-September period. Stay on your toes!

Listen, even in uncertain markets like the one we're in now, there are trading opportunities. We just need to make sure we monitor the reward to risk on every trade and keep our stops in place to minimize losses. One nice reward to risk trade (long-term positive divergence) to consider is featured as our Chart of the Day for Monday, August 6th. CLICK HERE for more details.

Happy trading!

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